MLB Home Run Best Bets and Picks: July 30th

MLB Best Bets 7/30

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Junior Caminero (TB) +400, FanDuel

Caminero’s average line is +315, so getting +400 here offers strong value. While he’s hitting just .173 on the road, he now has 10 home runs in 45 road games after going deep in the first game of this series. He’s facing a struggling Yankees right-hander who has allowed 6 home runs over his last 5 starts. Caminero has an .850 OPS and 21 of his 27 home runs against right-handed pitchers. We set his line at +300 to homer.

Sean Murphy (ATL) +510, BetRivers

We were on Murphy the other day, and while he didn’t connect, the model sees another strong opportunity today. The Royals are going with a bullpen game, and while their bullpen is middle-of-the-pack, the weather in Kansas City is a major factor—hot and humid with the wind blowing out. The home run index is a perfect 10/10, meaning Murphy might not need to fully barrel one to get it out. He has 16 HRs in 71 games, and while he hasn’t homered in his last 9 starts, we believe he’s due. We set his line at +350 to homer.

Julio Rodríguez (SEA) +420, FanDuel

There’s not much model value on Rodríguez, but we’re factoring in his second-half surge. After hitting just 1 HR in June, he’s launched 7 in July and has 5 multi-hit games in his last 7. He’s 3-for-9 with a home run in his career against Jeffrey Springs, who has allowed 20 HRs this season—17 of them to right-handed batters. We set Rodríguez’s line at +405 to homer.

MLB HR, Stolen Base, Strikeouts Prop Cheat Sheet

The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet. For example, Junior Caminero is our #6 projected HR hitter and we’d price him at +297 which is why getting +400 at FanDuel is such a good bet.